Relying on economists for predictions about the tone of our economy can be a frustrating business. After all, everyone knows the First Law of Economics: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist. The Second Law is that they are both wrong.
So what’s a person – who works in a business that is intimately tied to the economy, but who never once stepped foot in the business school during both his undergraduate and graduate school years – to do?
Rely on unscientific, subjective information, of course.
So here is my hot-off-the-press amateur assessment of the economy: things are improving. Here’s my case:
- We just closed a search in which the placement received a sizable counter-offer from his employer when he went in to resign. They are a professional services firm that is swamped with work.
- The line at Starbucks is definitely getting longer.
- I met a very senior-level executive last week who decided to leave a high-paying job, purely voluntarily, so she could conduct a job search to take a different direction in her career.
- We recently closed two search assignments for a client company with candidates who had multiple offers in hand, leading to a mini bidding war.
- I do not consider it idiotic that I am buying organic, boutique food for my cats.
- Our firm is hiring again, for the first time in about five years.
- The new iPhone just sold about 100 million jillion units in 23 minutes.
- The number of acquaintances who only call me when they need a job is dropping.
- Those same people whom I helped in the past are now putting out search assignments for their companies, but they have apparently lost my contact information.
- Christmas tree futures are soaring (I made this one up).
- The UPS guy visits my house at least twice a week now. Assuming he is not having an affair with my wife, I must be sending out vibes that we should make some of those purchases we put off while waiting for the economy to recover.
Of course, I could be reading all of these signals wrong, and we are about to enter a historic recession.